Scotland Independence Poll "September 18th"

thejournal.ie 7/9/2014

Opinion: What would Scottish independence mean for Ireland?

Whoever wins, we might see Ireland brought back into the picture as part of a broader ‘post-sovereign’ political framework.

THERE HAS BEEN little connection between the Scottish and Irish national questions since the nineteenth century. While there were some individual contacts, Scottish nationalism was often seen as a Protestant-influenced movement, with little

appeal to the Irish Catholic community.

This factor has disappeared in recent decades, and during the Celtic Tiger years Ireland was included in the Scottish National Party’s ‘arc of prosperity’ of small successful northern European states. Since the economic crisis broke, it has been quietly omitted.

Northern Ireland was seen as an example to be avoided and, since the Troubles erupted in the early 1960s, all parties in Scotland have striven to prevent them spilling over into the Catholic and Protestant communities of Scotland. British constitutional strategy has separated the two issues, notably in John Major’s declaration that the UK had no selfish economic or strategic interest in Northern Ireland. It was pure coincidence that devolution was restored to Northern Ireland in 1997-9 along with Scotland.

Alliances between Ireland and Scotland

Scottish independence would nevertheless affect politics in both parts of Ireland. Ireland could be expected to welcome Scotland into the European Union, given the trade and social links between the countries and its support for the principle of self-determination. There would be numerous opportunities for alliances between Ireland and Scotland and Scotland could learn from the Irish how to operate as a small member state.

The unionist side in the Scottish independence debate has suggested that, if Scotland were let into the EU, it would have to join the Schengen free-travel zone, thus leaving the UK-Ireland Common Travel Area and putting up border posts with England. They do not seem to have asked the Irish (as equal partners in the CTA) what they thought about the matter or whether they would want to introduce border controls.

Where would independence leave Northern Ireland?

There is considerable concern in Northern Ireland about the implications of Scottish independence. Unionists recall that the Union of 1800 was with Great Britain, not England, and ask what the new union would actually be. Like many in Wales, they fear that the new United Kingdom would be even more unbalanced if the strongest of its devolved nations were to go, so reinforcing the dominance of London.

The unionist community has two points of reference. One is to the Crown based in London; the other is to their kith and kin in western Scotland, and shared cultural and religious conditions. The Protestant working class community is already feeling marginalised. While the settlement has, in effect, guaranteed the union, they feel like losers in economic and social matters and the secession of Scotland could leave them feeling more isolated. Northern Ireland Catholics also have family links to Scotland but these are unlikely to be much affected.

Mainstream politicians in Scotland continue to sideline the Irish question and avoid mixing the issues. The Orange Order in Scotland is a staunch and vocal opponent of independence but has been ostracised by the official No campaign. The Yes side presents modern Scotland as a plural and multicultural community, in which sectarian politics has no place. The west of Scotland and the north of Ireland were for centuries one cultural and social space, with only a few miles of sea between them. This is no longer so and Irish considerations have played almost no role in the current Scottish independence debate.

Questioning traditional ideas of sovereignty

Yet what the Irish like to call ‘the totality of relationships among the peoples of these islands’ could be a way of facing up to a modern world in which traditional ideas of sovereignty are increasingly irrelevant and new forms of national accommodation are needed.

Neither side in Scotland is offering statehood in the traditional sense, however much they pretend otherwise. The Yes side proposes keeping five of the six unions (political, currency, monarchical, defence, European and social) that Scotland currently enjoys. The No side proposes more devolution. Somewhere in between are the majority of Scots, who do not accept the sharp binary distinction and want to explore new models of statehood. Both sides accept the European framework (such a consensus does not exist in England).

Whoever wins, we might see Ireland brought back into the picture as part of a broader framework, for what some of us have called a post-sovereign political order in which multiple political identities can co-exist without each having to have its own exclusive state.

Michael Keating is Professor of Politics at the University of Aberdeen and is a Fellow of the British Academy, the Royal Society of Edinburgh, the Academy of Social Sciences and the European Academy. He has taught at universities in Scotland, England, Canada, Italy, France and Spain. Currently, he is director of the Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change, a major programme examining the referendum in Scotland.

Sinn Féin Mountmellick – Serving The Community

(Reuters) - Supporters of Scottish independence have taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began, according to a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times newspaper.

With less than two weeks to go before the Sept. 18 vote, the poll puts the "Yes" to independence campaign on 51 percent, with the unionists on 49 percent, overturning a 22-point lead for the unionist campaign in just a month, the Sunday Times said.

The paper announced the headline results in a news release ahead of publication. No further details of the poll were immediately available.

"The YouGov survey ... shows that the nationalists have taken a two-point lead and are poised to triumph in the referendum," the paper said.

After months of surveys showing nationalists heading for defeat, recent polls have been showing the gap narrowing to the extent that they raise the real prospect that secessionists led by Alex Salmond's Scottish National Party (SNP) could achieve their goal of breaking the 307-year-old union with England.

A previous YouGov poll on Sept. 1 put the lead for the "no" to secession campaign at just six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points at the start of that month.

But the latest average of the polls, issued on Sept. 1 by Strathclyde University Professor of Politics John Curtice, still shows the unionist lead at 10 points.

The late showing by the independence camp has hit sterling on the foreign exchanges and electrified Britain's political class after its summer break.

A vote to break away would be followed by negotiations with London on what to do about the currency, the national debt, North Sea oil and the future of Britain's nuclear submarine base in Scotland ahead of independence pencilled in for March 24, 2016.

If Scots voted to leave the United Kingdom, Prime Minister David Cameron would face calls to resign ahead of a national election in May 2015 while the opposition Labour party's chances of gaining a majority could be scuppered if it lost its Scottish lawmakers.

Cameron, who is due to visit Queen Elizabeth in Scotland on Sunday, has insisted he will not resign.

Nationalists accuse London of squandering Scotland's wealth and say Scotland would be one of the world's richest countries if it took control of its own destiny.

Unionists, including Britain's three main political parties, say the United Kingdom is stronger if it stays together and that Scottish independence would bring significant financial, economic and political uncertainty.

Politicians from the "Better Together" unionist campaign have been trying to tempt Scots with offers of greater devolution.

This week, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, himself a Scot, promised Edinburgh more powers over its tax, social and economic affairs if Scots voted against independence.

The Observer newspaper, in an advance extract of its Sunday edition, said British ministers planned to make further concrete offers in coming days to allow Scots to devise a federal future for their country