Scotland Independence Poll "September 18th"

thejournal.ie 7/9/2014

Opinion: What would Scottish independence mean for Ireland?

Whoever wins, we might see Ireland brought back into the picture as part of a broader ‘post-sovereign’ political framework.

THERE HAS BEEN little connection between the Scottish and Irish national questions since the nineteenth century. While there were some individual contacts, Scottish nationalism was often seen as a Protestant-influenced movement, with little 

appeal to the Irish Catholic community.

This factor has disappeared in recent decades, and during the Celtic Tiger years Ireland was included in the Scottish National Party’s ‘arc of prosperity’ of small successful northern European states. Since the economic crisis broke, it has been quietly omitted.

Northern Ireland was seen as an example to be avoided and, since the Troubles erupted in the early 1960s, all parties in Scotland have striven to prevent them spilling over into the Catholic and Protestant communities of Scotland. British constitutional strategy has separated the two issues, notably in John Major’s declaration that the UK had no selfish economic or strategic interest in Northern Ireland. It was pure coincidence that devolution was restored to Northern Ireland in 1997-9 along with Scotland.

Alliances between Ireland and Scotland

Scottish independence would nevertheless affect politics in both parts of Ireland. Ireland could be expected to welcome Scotland into the European Union, given the trade and social links between the countries and its support for the principle of self-determination. There would be numerous opportunities for alliances between Ireland and Scotland and Scotland could learn from the Irish how to operate as a small member state.

The unionist side in the Scottish independence debate has suggested that, if Scotland were let into the EU, it would have to join the Schengen free-travel zone, thus leaving the UK-Ireland Common Travel Area and putting up border posts with England. They do not seem to have asked the Irish (as equal partners in the CTA) what they thought about the matter or whether they would want to introduce border controls.

Where would independence leave Northern Ireland? 

There is considerable concern in Northern Ireland about the implications of Scottish independence. Unionists recall that the Union of 1800 was with Great Britain, not England, and ask what the new union would actually be. Like many in Wales, they fear that the new United Kingdom would be even more unbalanced if the strongest of its devolved nations were to go, so reinforcing the dominance of London.

The unionist community has two points of reference. One is to the Crown based in London; the other is to their kith and kin in western Scotland, and shared cultural and religious conditions. The Protestant working class community is already feeling marginalised. While the settlement has, in effect, guaranteed the union, they feel like losers in economic and social matters and the secession of Scotland could leave them feeling more isolated. Northern Ireland Catholics also have family links to Scotland but these are unlikely to be much affected.

Mainstream politicians in Scotland continue to sideline the Irish question and avoid mixing the issues. The Orange Order in Scotland is a staunch and vocal opponent of independence but has been ostracised by the official No campaign. The Yes side presents modern Scotland as a plural and multicultural community, in which sectarian politics has no place. The west of Scotland and the north of Ireland were for centuries one cultural and social space, with only a few miles of sea between them. This is no longer so and Irish considerations have played almost no role in the current Scottish independence debate.

Questioning traditional ideas of sovereignty 

Yet what the Irish like to call ‘the totality of relationships among the peoples of these islands’ could be a way of facing up to a modern world in which traditional ideas of sovereignty are increasingly irrelevant and new forms of national accommodation are needed.

Neither side in Scotland is offering statehood in the traditional sense, however much they pretend otherwise. The Yes side proposes keeping five of the six unions (political, currency, monarchical, defence, European and social) that Scotland currently enjoys. The No side proposes more devolution. Somewhere in between are the majority of Scots, who do not accept the sharp binary distinction and want to explore new models of statehood. Both sides accept the European framework (such a consensus does not exist in England).

Whoever wins, we might see Ireland brought back into the picture as part of a broader framework, for what some of us have called a post-sovereign political order in which multiple political identities can co-exist without each having to have its own exclusive state.

Michael Keating is Professor of Politics at the University of Aberdeen and is a Fellow of the British Academy, the Royal Society of Edinburgh, the Academy of Social Sciences and the European Academy. He has taught at universities in Scotland, England, Canada, Italy, France and Spain. Currently, he is director of the Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change, a major programme examining the referendum in Scotland.

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(Reuters) - Supporters of Scottish independence have taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began, according to a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times newspaper.

With less than two weeks to go before the Sept. 18 vote, the poll puts the "Yes" to independence campaign on 51 percent, with the unionists on 49 percent, overturning a 22-point lead for the unionist campaign in just a month, the Sunday Times said.

The paper announced the headline results in a news release ahead of publication. No further details of the poll were immediately available.

"The YouGov survey ... shows that the nationalists have taken a two-point lead and are poised to triumph in the referendum," the paper said.

After months of surveys showing nationalists heading for defeat, recent polls have been showing the gap narrowing to the extent that they raise the real prospect that secessionists led by Alex Salmond's Scottish National Party (SNP) could achieve their goal of breaking the 307-year-old union with England.

A previous YouGov poll on Sept. 1 put the lead for the "no" to secession campaign at just six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points at the start of that month.

But the latest average of the polls, issued on Sept. 1 by Strathclyde University Professor of Politics John Curtice, still shows the unionist lead at 10 points.

The late showing by the independence camp has hit sterling on the foreign exchanges and electrified Britain's political class after its summer break.

A vote to break away would be followed by negotiations with London on what to do about the currency, the national debt, North Sea oil and the future of Britain's nuclear submarine base in Scotland ahead of independence pencilled in for March 24, 2016.

If Scots voted to leave the United Kingdom, Prime Minister David Cameron would face calls to resign ahead of a national election in May 2015 while the opposition Labour party's chances of gaining a majority could be scuppered if it lost its Scottish lawmakers.

Cameron, who is due to visit Queen Elizabeth in Scotland on Sunday, has insisted he will not resign.

Nationalists accuse London of squandering Scotland's wealth and say Scotland would be one of the world's richest countries if it took control of its own destiny.

Unionists, including Britain's three main political parties, say the United Kingdom is stronger if it stays together and that Scottish independence would bring significant financial, economic and political uncertainty.

Politicians from the "Better Together" unionist campaign have been trying to tempt Scots with offers of greater devolution.

This week, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, himself a Scot, promised Edinburgh more powers over its tax, social and economic affairs if Scots voted against independence.

The Observer newspaper, in an advance extract of its Sunday edition, said British ministers planned to make further concrete offers in coming days to allow Scots to devise a federal future for their country

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Be Aware

Canadian beekeepers’ sting: Pesticide giants sued for $450mn over bee deaths

4/9/2014

Canadian honey producers have filed a class-action lawsuit against Bayer and Syngenta to recover losses dating as far back as 2006, claiming that neonicotinoids they produce and sell are killing bees and cause massive material damage.

The lawsuit, filed on behalf of all Canadian beekeepers by honey producers Sun Parlor Honey Ltd. and Munro Honey alleges that Bayer Cropscience Inc. and Syngenta Canada Inc. and their parent companies were negligent in their design, development, sale and distribution of neonicotinoid pesticides, specifically those containing imidacloprid, clothianidin and thiomethoxam, while the defendants “knew or ought to have known at all material times that the neonicotinoids would cause damage to the property of the plaintiffs and the other class members.”

The claim seeks $400 million in compensation for losses and $50 million in punitive damages from Bayer CropScience and Syngenta.

Between 2006 and 2013, Sun Parlor, which has been in business for 89 years, incurred losses of approximately $2,112,200 dollars, while in the same period, Munro Honey incurred losses of approximately $3,001,712.50, the lawsuit said.

The London law firm Siskinds LLP, which is representing the Canadian beekeepers, emphasized that it is not just a question of business at stake. “The bigger picture is the devastation of the bee population threatens the security of Canada’s food supply,” Siskinds lawyer Dimitri Lascaris told the London Free Press.

Several studies previously concluded that neonicotinoids – or “neonics” – widely used insecticides sprayed on corn and soybean seeds, are responsible for wiping out bee colonies.

READ MORE Pesticides linked to honeybee decline are affecting other species, scientists say

The 30-page lawsuit mentions the international Task Force on Systemic Pesticides that was assembled in 2009 to determine if neonics played a role in honey bee deaths. One of its findings was particularly startling: “In the case of acute effects alone, some neonicotinoids are at least 5,000 to 10,000 times more toxic to bees than DDT (a hazardous pesticide that has been largely phased out)…the evidence is clear that neonicotinoids pose a serious risk of harm to honey bees and other pollinators,” it concluded.

The European Union has placed a ban on the use of neonicotinoids.

READ MORE EU imposes 2-year ban on pesticides believed responsible for mass bee deaths

The global phenomenon of declines in honey bee populations, which scientists have dubbed “colony collapse disorder,” is responsible for killing an estimated 35 percent of honey bees in Canada in the past three years, according to the Canadian Honey Council.

Julie White of the Ontario Beekeepers’ Association said the insecticide damages the nervous systems of the bees, which are responsible for producing honey and pollinating crops – to the tune of billions of dollars each year.

“When things get planted the dust goes into the air, it’s systemic as well growing in to the plants and it gets into puddles . . . the bees either get killed in the field or they carry it back to the hive,” White told the Star.

The pesticides were also found in 70 percent of dead bees tested by Health Canada in 2013, according to CBС News.

A 2012 study by Purdue University, which examined bee deaths around hives from several apiaries over two years in Indiana, revealed a high concentration of neonicotinoid insecticides.

READ MORE Bee studies feel sting of pesticide manufacturers – MPs

"We know that these insecticides are highly toxic to bees; we found them in each sample of dead and dying bees," said Christian Krupke, associate professor of entomology and a co-author of the findings.

Bayer CropScience said it has not been served with the lawsuit and is “unable to answer any specific questions,” the Star reported

Neonicotinoids make up about 40 percent of the insecticide market, with global sales around $3 billion in 2011.

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Food For Thought.

Science Daily

Changing global diets is vital to reducing climate change, researchers say

August 31, 2014

University of Cambridge

Summary:

Healthier diets and reducing food waste are part of a combination of solutions needed to ensure food security and avoid dangerous climate change, say the team behind a new study.

A shift to healthier diets across the world is just one of a number of actions that need to be taken to avoid dangerous climate change and ensure there is enough food for all.

Credit: © omikron960 / Fotolia

A new study, published today in Nature Climate Change, suggests that -- if current trends continue -- food production alone will reach, if not exceed, the global targets for total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050.

The study's authors say we should all think carefully about the food we choose and its environmental impact. A shift to healthier diets across the world is just one of a number of actions that need to be taken to avoid dangerous climate change and ensure there is enough food for all.

As populations rise and global tastes shift towards meat-heavy Western diets, increasing agricultural yields will not meet projected food demands of what is expected to be 9.6 billion people -- making it necessary to bring more land into cultivation.

This will come at a high price, warn the authors, as the deforestation will increase carbon emissions as well as biodiversity loss, and increased livestock production will raise methane levels. They argue that current food demand trends must change through reducing waste and encouraging balanced diets.

If we maintain 'business as usual', say the authors, then by 2050 cropland will have expanded by 42% and fertiliser use increased sharply by 45% over 2009 levels. A further tenth of the world's pristine tropical forests would disappear over the next 35 years.

The study shows that increased deforestation, fertilizer use and livestock methane emissions are likely to cause GHG from food production to increase by almost 80%. This will put emissions from food production alone roughly equal to the target greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 for the entire global economy.

The study's authors write that halving the amount of food waste and managing demand for particularly environmentally-damaging food products by changing global diets should be key aims that, if achieved, might mitigate some of the greenhouse gases causing climate change.

"There are basic laws of biophysics that we cannot evade," said lead researcher Bojana Bajzelj from the University of Cambridge's Department of Engineering, who authored the study with colleagues from Cambridge's departments of Geography and Plant Sciences as well as the University of Aberdeen's Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences.

"The average efficiency of livestock converting plant feed to meat is less than 3%, and as we eat more meat, more arable cultivation is turned over to producing feedstock for animals that provide meat for humans. The losses at each stage are large, and as humans globally eat more and more meat, conversion from plants to food becomes less and less efficient, driving agricultural expansion and land cover conversion, and releasing more greenhouse gases. Agricultural practices are not necessarily at fault here -- but our choice of food is," said Bajzelj.

"It is imperative to find ways to achieve global food security without expanding crop or pastureland. Food production is a main driver of biodiversity loss and a large contributor to climate change and pollution, so our food choices matter."

The team analysed evidence such as land use, land suitability and agricultural biomass data to create a robust model that compares different scenarios for 2050, including scenarios based on maintaining current trends.

One scenario investigated by the team is on the supply side: the closing of 'yield gaps'. Gaps between crop yields achieved in 'best practice' farming and the actual average yields exist all over the world, but are widest in developing countries -- particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The researchers say that closing these gaps through sustainable intensification of farming should be actively pursued.

But even with the yield gaps closed, projected food demand will still require additional land -- so the impact on GHG emissions and biodiversity remains. Bajzelj points out that higher yields will also require more mineral fertiliser use and increased water demand for irrigation.

Food waste, another scenario analysed by the team, occurs at all stages in the food chain. In developing countries, poor storage and transportation cause waste; in the west, wasteful consumption is rife. "The latter is in many ways worse because the wasted food products have already undergone various transformations that require input of other resources, especially energy," said Bajzelj.

Yield gap closure alone still showed a greenhouse gas increase of just over 40% by 2050. Closing yield gaps and halving food waste still showed a small increase of 2% in greenhouse gas emissions. When healthy diets were added, the model suggests that all three measures combined result in agricultural GHG levels almost halving from their 2009 level -- dropping 48%.

"Western diets are increasingly characterised by excessive consumption of food, including that of emission-intensive meat and dairy products. We tested a scenario where all countries were assumed to achieve an average balanced diet -- without excessive consumption of sugars, fats, and meat products. This significantly reduced the pressures on the environment even further," said the team.

The 'average' balanced diet used in the study is a relatively achievable goal for most. For example, the figures included two 85g portions of red meat and five eggs per week, as well as a portion of poultry a day.

"This is not a radical vegetarian argument; it is an argument about eating meat in sensible amounts as part of healthy, balanced diets," said Cambridge co-author Prof Keith Richards. "Managing the demand better, for example by focusing on health education, would bring double benefits -- maintaining healthy populations, and greatly reducing critical pressures on the environment."

Co-author Prof Pete Smith from the University of Aberdeen said: "unless we make some serious changes in food consumption trends, we would have to completely de-carbonise the energy and industry sectors to stay within emissions budgets that avoid dangerous climate change. That is practically impossible -- so, as well as encouraging sustainable agriculture, we need to re-think what we eat."

"Cutting food waste and moderating meat consumption in more balanced diets, are the essential 'no-regrets' options," added Bajzelj.

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Cambridge. The original story is licensed under a Creative Commons Licence. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Journal Reference:

1. 1. Bojana Bajželj, Keith S. Richards, Julian M. Allwood, Pete Smith, John S. Dennis, Elizabeth Curmi, Christopher A. Gilligan. Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation. Nature Climate Change, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2353

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